Climate Central then added up populations (Landscan 2010) within the identified areas to compute how many people today live on implicated land. Read More, Members of the Climate Central staff and board are among the most respected leaders in climate science. Remote Sensing of Environment 206, 231–239 (2018). And as it does so, ice sheets and glaciers melt and warming sea water expands, increasing the volume of the world’s oceans. By 2050, land now home to 93 million people could be lower than the height of the local average annual coastal flood. In coastal regions, overestimates of elevation produce underestimates of future inundation driven by sea level rise. In Vietnam, annual ocean floods are projected to particularly affect the densely populated Mekong Delta and the northern coast around Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, including the port city of Haiphong (explore map at coastal.climatecentral.org). Sefrioui S. (2017) Adapting to Sea Level Rise: A Law of the Sea Perspective. 17. 2014, median climate sensitivity. Climate Central built this screening-level public web tool to help communities, planners, and leaders better understand sea level rise and coastal flood risks. This report relies on 2010 LandScan data for global population estimates and refers to that data as current. General Disclaimer & Legal Terms Predicted Sea Level Rise Impacts on Major Cities from Global Warming Up to 4°C. Together, those six nations account for roughly 75 percent of the 300 million people on land facing the same vulnerability at midcentury. 2. And well before that land is flooded, residents will face saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies and frequent flooding. Back to top. Our scientists publish and our journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise. Separately, Climate Central added in local flood risk statistics approximating the one-year return level (approximately annual) water height (Muis et al. & Nagy, Dávid Krisztián & Oppenheimer, Michael & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban & Strauss, Benjamin H., 2018. China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are home to the greatest number of people who today live on land that could be threatened by permanent inundation by 2100—151 million in total, and 43 million in China alone. Nature Communications, October 2019, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z At midcentury, sea-level rise projections under moderate cuts are similar to those under unchecked emissions (known as RCP 8.5); by the end of the century, however, projections diverge much more. Le Bars, D., Drijfhout, S. & de Vries, H. A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Climatic Change, 144(2), 347–364. Projecting the specific economic, humanitarian, and political costs of the upward revision in global exposure to sea level rise revealed by CoastalDEM is beyond the scope of this report. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018). Climate Central has created an interactive, zip-searchable map of the U.S. to show the 20 ft of sea level rise that would be locked in by 2°C (3.6°F) of global warming, based on a newly published Science study. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 3880. http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04134-5 Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. To the many organizations that have financially supported Climate Central and its sea level program, including The Kresge Foundation and The Schmidt Family Foundation. Emissions pathway: moderate emissions cuts (RCP 4.5) roughly consistent with the Paris climate agreement’s two-degree target. Human-caused climate change is creating more coastal flood days in the U.S. New analysis looks at the human-caused influence on the number of coastal flood days for various locations across the U.S. As the climate warms, rising sea levels will mean more damage from hurricane storm surge. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013). Key Points. Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment. A flood peaking at a certain height will generally not inundate 100 percent of the nearby area below that height, if the flood peaks and redescends rapidly. Moderate emissions cuts. By that time, average annual coastal floods are projected to rise higher than a wide swath of Bangladesh, including parts of the cities of Dhaka and Chittagong (box 6; explore map at coastal.climatecentral.org). This process was repeated for a number of different years and sea level rise model sensitivities, and under low, moderate, and high emissions pathways for heat-trapping pollution (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), in order to achieve a comprehensive assessment of global coastal vulnerability. 3) Sea level rise models. This study’s middle-of-the-road projections for 2030 range from one inch of local sea level rise in the northwest corner of Washington State, where the land is slowly rising, to 8 inches near New Orleans, where it is sinking. Those estimates reveal that far more land—and more people—will be vulnerable to sea level rise during this century than previously believed (chart 1). Sea level rise is set to challenge human civilization for centuries to come, even if internationally agreed climate goals are met and planet-warming … Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. Sea level rise model: Kopp et al. So are Tianjin, the main port for the capital city of Beijing, and the Pearl River Delta region, an urban agglomeration comprising several major mainland cities and the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau (explore map at coastal.climatecentral.org). Based on sea level projections for 2050, land currently home to 300 million people will fall below the elevation of an average annual coastal flood. That is the purpose of CoastalDEM. Start with mainland China. Box 3 (below) details caveats and limitations for this report’s findings. 14. Every global shore touches the same ocean, and the ocean is rising. That factor is coastal elevation. Integrates the leading sea level rise science, local flood history, and cutting-edge elevation data Customizable by year, projection type, sea level rise model, pollution scenario, and more Combine these layers with your own GIS data to learn what areas you care about are at risk of flooding http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4 Environmental Research Letters, 12(4), 044013. http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512 Special Thanks. Elevation model: CoastalDEM. 2014, median climate sensitivity. CoastalDEM offers important improvements over the most common alternative. Back to top According to a Climate Central report this week, “Sea level rise is one of the best known of climate change’s many dangers. Understanding the real threat posed by future sea level rise requires a better view of the ground beneath our feet. However, sufficiently accurate elevation data are either unavailable or inaccessible to the public, or prohibitively expensive in most of the world outside the United States, Australia, and parts of Europe. Climate Central used machine learning techniques to estimate SRTM elevation error in coastal areas between (and including) 1 and 20 meters (3.3 and 65.6 feet) in nominal SRTM elevation. The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived and maintains this tool. *Maps do not factor in potential coastal defenses, such as seawalls or levees, and are based on elevation, rather than flood models. Climate Central’s new mapping tool enables users to explore risks over time, for any coastal location in the world, incorporating multiple pollution scenarios, leading sea level rise models, and the most accurate available elevation data available—including Climate Central’s new CoastalDEM® elevation data for areas outside the United States. Bakker, A. M. R., Wong, T. E., Ruckert, K. L., & Keller, K. (2017). In reality, however, the world is not on track to meet the Paris agreement’s goals. Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, custom data acquired via website. Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. 4. sea level rise, compared to global rates. IPBES-IPCC co-sponsored workshop on biodiversity and climate change 14-17 December 2020 Opening statement by IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee Excellencies, dear … December 2020 Explore Kopp, R. E. et al. Special Thanks. The same is true of Guangdong Province, another coastal economic powerhouse (explore map at coastal.climatecentral.org). To the many organizations that have financially supported Climate Central and its sea level program, including The Kresge Foundation and The Schmidt Family Foundation. As sea levels continue to rise throughout the century, chronic flooding will spread and more land will be permanently lost to the ocean. Mainland China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are home to the most people on land projected to be below average annual coastal flood levels by 2050 (table 2). Current population below the elevation of an average annual flood in 2050, top six countries Melting ice sheets will cause higher sea-level rise in the state due to how the Earth rotates and gravitational pull on the waters Sea level rise is a result of heat-trapping pollution from human activities, which causes ice sheets and glaciers to melt, increasing the volume of water in the oceans. The consequences range from near-term increases in coastal flooding that can damage infrastructure and crops to the permanent displacement of coastal communities. Each pixel in CoastalDEM represents the corrected elevation at that point — the result of subtracting estimated error from SRTM 3.0. In Proceedings of the ASPRS/MAPPS 2009 Fall Conference 351 (2009). Sea level rise could also produce humanitarian crises by stripping millions of people of their homes and traditional livelihoods. Rising seas could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought, according to new research, threatening to all but erase some of the world’s great coastal cities. Risk Zone Map shows near-term sea level rise and coastal flood threats. This population is almost certainly protected to some degree by existing coastal defenses, which may or may not be adequate for future sea levels. Future coastal flood threats in Shanghai, China 16. Explore where, when and what could be impacted near you. Kulp, S. A. This Climate Central map shows how […] Drought, extreme heat, and the other dangers of climate change could displace many more. Jiangsu Province, China’s most densely populated province, could be highly vulnerable to chronic ocean flooding in just thirty years. Research. Shanghai, which is the country’s most populous city, is projected to be particularly vulnerable to ocean flooding in the absence of coastal defenses (box 4). And as … A new digital elevation model produced by Climate Central helps fill the gap. Le Bars, D., Drijfhout, S., & de Vries, H. (2017). To the many organizations that have financially supported Climate Central and its sea level program, including The Kresge Foundation and The Schmidt Family Foundation. In 19 countries, from Nigeria and Brazil to Egypt and the United Kingdom, land now home to at least one million people could fall permanently below the high tide line at the end of the century and become permanently inundated, in the absence of coastal defenses. Such cuts would reduce the total number of people threatened by annual flooding and permanent inundation at the end of the century by 20 million, relative to moderate emissions cuts made roughly in line with the Paris agreement. Kulp, S. A & Strauss, B.H. Check out the resources below to learn more about sea-level rise in South Florida and beyond. Home to 26 million people, Shanghai is China’s biggest single urban agglomeration. The developing countries least able to protect their residents through coastal defenses or planned evacuations could be particularly vulnerable—and are responsible for just a small fraction of global emissions. By overlaying social and economic data on a map that depicts sea level rise, a community can see the potential impact that sea level rise can have on vulnerable people and businesses. General Disclaimer & Legal Terms Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. Scientific Reports 7, 3880 (2017). 5) Protective features. As humanity pollutes the … West Bengal and coastal Odisha are projected to be particularly vulnerable, as is the eastern city of Kolkata (box 5; Home to 26 million people, Shanghai is China’s biggest single urban agglomeration. Tools from NOAA, Climate Central, Information is Beautiful, and EarthTime are helpful for visualizing the effects of sea level rise. Our scientists publish and our journalists report on climate science, energy, sea level rise… In the absence of coastal defenses such as levees, elevation determines the extent to which ocean floods can wash over the land. Experts say yes, Report: Flooded Future: Global vulnerability to sea level rise worse than previously understood, Extreme Heat: When Outdoor Sports Become Risky, Climate Change is Threatening Air Quality across the Country, Ocean at the Door: New Homes and the Rising Sea. However, global population has grown since 2010 and is projected to grow further this century, including in countries exposed to sea level rise and annual flooding. Kulp, S. A & Strauss, B.H. Sea level rise is a game of millimeters a year, but those millimeters add up to a huge amount of water entering the world’s oceans. Global data on protective features such as levees and seawalls are not publicly available, so those features, which reduce exposure to sea level rise, are not incorporated into this analysis. The pace of sea level rise accelerated beginning in the 1990s, coinciding with acceleration in glacier and ice sheet melting. Earth’s Future, 2, 383–406, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239 It is the peer-reviewed scientific paper upon which this report is based. Sea level rise is a near term danger: today’s communities must make choices not just on the behalf of future generations, but also for themselves. Rising seas dramatically increase the odds of damaging floods from storm surges. Projecting where and when that rise could translate into increased flooding and permanent inundation is profoundly important for coastal planning and for reckoning the costs of humanity’s emissions. Sea level rise is one of the best known of climate change’s many dangers. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise. By 2050, these projections increase to 4 and 19 inches, respectively. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. 7 014032 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032/meta; Buchanan, M.K., Kopp, R.E., Oppenheimer, M. et al., Climatic Change (2016) 137: 347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections. The second mechanism is the melting of ice over land, which then adds water to the ocean. More sea level resources from Climate Central. Shortridge, A. Three of every four people in the Marshall Islands now live on land that could lie below high tide in the next eighty years. Environmental Research Letters 12, 044013 (2017). Rising Sea Levels Will Hit California Harder Than Other Places. (See spreadsheet download in “related resources.”). 3. “Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2019, 201817205; DOI:10.1073/pnas.1817205116 By 2100, land now home to 200 million people could sit permanently below the high tide line. Sea Level Rise: New York Projections and Impacts Summary of impacts and projections, with link to December 2010 special task force report to the NY legislature on sea level rise. In practice, the costs will run deeper than immediate physical damage to buildings and infrastructure, or the costs of adaptation, which will never be perfect. 15. Low-lying Jiangsu Province, which abuts Shanghai, is also vulnerable. Flooding can be costly because it can displace productive local economies dependent on density and convenient coastal locations. To estimate the height of local annual floods above sea level, this analysis uses a global model developed by Muis et al. A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise: Advancing Waters As the climate warms, rising sea levels will mean more damage from hurricane storm surge. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 5946– 5951 (2017). Stocker, T. et al. URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717306016. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated last month in a special report on the oceans that global average sea levels could rise by up to … How fast it will rise depends mostly on the rate of glacier and ice sheet melting. Sea level rise is a result of heat-trapping pollution from human activities, which causes ice sheets and glaciers to melt, increasing the volume of water in the oceans. Sea level can rise by two different mechanisms with respect to climate change. 2014). More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017,: 1554 which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century. Special Thanks. This will happen not just in the distant future, but also within the lifetimes of most people alive today. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51274-7_1 11. Under a higher-emissions scenario, and near the tail end (95th percentile) of sea-level rise sensitivity to warming for the model used in this study, land home to 640 million people today—approaching 10 percent of the world’s population—could be threatened by the end of the century, either by chronic flooding or permanent inundation. Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. To the many organizations that have financially supported Climate Central and its sea level program, including The Kresge Foundation and The Schmidt Family Foundation. CoastalDEM data show that the problem is set to worsen. Muis, S. et al. Global and Planetary Change (2012). Read More, Flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia, February 2017. All of them are expensive, limiting the options available for a city in decline. Climate Central surveys and conducts scientific research on climate change and informs the public of key findings. Read More. By that year, projected sea level rise could push average annual floods above land currently home to some 36 million people. The most recent special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise … SRTM data measure the tops of features that protrude from the ground—such as buildings and trees—as well as the ground itself. That model underestimates the height of annual floods by an average of 4.3 inches, relative to one-year flood heights estimated using standard methods at U.S. tide gauges with at least 30 years of hourly water level data. Special Thanks. That model, CoastalDEM, shows that many of the world’s coastlines are far lower than has been generally known and that sea level rise could affect hundreds of millions of more people in the coming decades than previously understood. The city already faces flooding driven by heavy rain and other events; by midcentury, much of Kolkata could lie in the annual coastal flood risk zone. National Bureau of Statistics of China, National Data, custom information acquired via website. Annual flood threat zone, 2050 “Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding,” CEPR Discussion Papers 13128, C.E.P.R. Today, one in every four Bangladeshis lives on land that could flood at least once a year, on average, by 2050. Bright, E. A., Coleman, P. R., Rose, A. N. & Urban, M. L. Landscan 2010 (2011). Sea Level Rise. Global and Planetary Change 146, 179–189 (2016). The Influence of Land Cover on Shuttle Radar Topogra-phy Mission (SRTM) Elevations in Low Relief Areas. Explore where, when and what could be impacted near you. Staff members are authorities in communicating climate and weather links, sea level rise, climate. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Florida Summary of potential sea level rise and storm surge impacts. Surging Seas collects these sea level resources and more. Back to top Accurately measuring coastal elevation over large areas is neither easy nor cheap. Globally, the average overestimate appears to be roughly six feet (two meters). Combining CoastalDEM with sea-level-rise and coastal-flood models produces new estimates of exposure to rising seas around the world (box 2). 2016), allowing the analysis to combine the water heights of such flood events with projected sea level rise when identifying areas at high risk. Future coastal flood threats in Kolkata, India The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived and maintains this tool. By 2100, sea level may be as high as six-and-a-half feet above 1992 levels, putting the homes of 7.8 million Americans at risk of being flooded. Sea level is on the rise. Scientists have long worked to project how quickly various amounts of global warming could raise the level of the world’s oceans—a question about which much uncertainty remains, given the challenges of understanding how ice sheets will respond to the extreme pace of warming they are now experiencing. Discussion Papers. Sea level rise is one of the best known of climate change’s many dangers. & Grinsted, A. Moreover, such features are costly and require significant maintenance on an ongoing basis in order to be effective; in the U.S., for example, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimated in 2013 that only 8% of existing levees it had monitored were in “acceptable” condition. But the danger of permanent inundation is by no means be limited to Asia. An independent organization of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the public. Springer, Cham. Risk Finder includes projections, analysis, and downloadable graphics and reports for every coastal city, county, and state -- and more -- in the contiguous U.S. 2) Population data. In recent years, scientists have suggested that the sensitivity of Greenland and especially Antarctic ice sheets to global warming could make the global ocean rise more quickly than previously believed. Earth’s Future 2, 383–406 (2014). The multi-part tool provides local sea level rise and flood risk projections, searchable interactive maps, “fast look” community reports, data downloads, and exposure tabulations by zip codes, municipalities, counties, and more. Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts. Adaptive measures such as construction of levees and other defenses or relocation to higher ground could lessen these threats. This report is based on a pollution scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, which assumes that humanity will moderately reduce warming emissions roughly in line with the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Claudia Tebaldi et al 2012 Environ. Interactive global map showing areas threatened by sea level rise and coastal flooding. Estimates of future economic losses from sea level rise vary depending on the amount of climate pollution and subsequent rise projected, as well as other factors, such as whether future population growth, innovation, or migration are considered. In the Maldives, the figure is one in three. Becek, K. Assessing Global Digital Elevation Models Using the Runway Method: The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Versus the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Case. However, this analysis assesses overland flood exposure based on elevation, and does not use dynamic modeling. However, this report focuses on median projections from a sea level rise model that does not incorporate the higher end of potential ice sheet sensitivity (Kopp et al. Even as land home to 200 million people today will be threatened by permanent inundation, areas now home to an additional 360 million will face the threat of at-least annual floods, totalling more than half-a-billion people on highly vulnerable land. In fact, based on CoastalDEM, roughly 110 million people currently live on land below high tide line. Climate change: Sea level rise to affect 'three times more people' ... the Climate Central analysis will be less surprising where coastal lidar surveys are already used to assess future flood risk. 10. SRTM is known to contain significant error caused by factors such as topology, vegetation, buildings, and random noise. Time to travel over land, which then adds water to the permanent displacement coastal... 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